Final Thoughts/Results for the Week:
APA High $74.01 Low $70.33 Last $72.22
Although not hitting target, it was a gainer on Wednesday and again on Thursday if played at the open. Short signal did not trigger.
APOL High $68.25 Low $63.59 Last $68.50
Triggered short shortly after open on Monday and hit target midday. It also gave short entry on Wednesday at open and hit $64 target shortly thereafter.
VNO High $44.79 Low $41.78 Last $44.56
Worked as a short below the $44 hitting the target 2 days in a row. It never triggered the call for long.
SOHU High $67.18 Low $60.33 Last $67.73
Added on Tuesday triggered long rolled over at 62.27; target hit on Wednesday with continued gains through Friday.
POT High $95.35 Low $87.20 Last $93.09
Targets hit both Monday and Wednesday in a tight trading range, Pot will most likely give better moves going forward.
PTR High $111.61 Low $103.40 Last $110.98
Opened with a gap up at $107.54 it made a high near the 2nd target; gave a several point gain opportunity of Thursday.
NFLX High $42.68 Low $39.02 Last $40.37
Played well on short both Monday and Friday, $43 seems a difficult point for it but it's not ready to drop to the low side. We'll watch for channel plays next week
All in all a careful week with good gains despite the FOMC and other reports.
Next week will be beginning of summer holiday time and we'll probably have slow trading as on Friday, with many people taking the week off and the closing of the quarter on Monday. Enjoy your weekend, and Remember a Time with Michael Jackson.
As always,
Anni
Week History Below
Friday
6/26/07 18:12 ET Nice ride down on NFLX today that was only call
06/26 12:59et NFLX could breakout or bdownn here. Long above 42.82 to 43.30 area then possibly 44. Has support at 42.07 so Short below 42.00 target 40 area.
Thursday
No calls or posting
Wednesday
Due to FOMC meeting and announcement it's advised to be extreemly cautious. Expect volatile moves especially just before and after the announcement. Best to be in cash from daytrades. Let market settle before continuing trades. Don't trade at all if uncertain of signals.
6/24: 01:00 APA I like long here to retrace the gap to about $75; pop above? the 200 dma will be troublesome and the breakdown of $70 to retrace all the way to $62 is on the watch.
6/24 00:30 PTR double bottom and 50dma support for a possible bull move back to $107 to $110 area. For confirmation check premarket and opening momentum. Long above 105.50 to targets. stop 104.14. Short below the 50dma 104. to targets 101 and lower with retrace to $95 area.
6/24 00:54 POT in a quandary, pinned to the dollar? Bouncing on good treasury news and major support 2 days in a row, what's next? FOMC watch is on and will influence. There's a tempting gap up there above the 100 and POT has been known to travel fast, but I'd first watch the 50dma to see if perks up the trend. Again, short below $90 to about $87 breaking below to $85 to $79 on further downtrend. Long above $93 to $95 to $97 and higher on momentum.
Tuesday
6/23/09 12:57 SOHU Long above 62.14 stop 60.90 target $64 Short below $60.90 target $60 then $59, $57.50
Monday
6/22 16:30 PostMarket Update: POT very tight range until amost the end but remember POT had lost almost 30 pts prior to today. Market caught up. Still it yielded a couple of points from $90. APOL short $66 target #1 hit $64 before it reversed. NFLX retraced to $40 from $41.35 at open. Good for a point+. It has not filled the daily gap low. VNO opened in the channel but could not hit $45 and therefore short presented itself at $44 yielded a couple of points when end of day it finally hit the $42 I've been targeting for a while. Hang in there it's going to be a bumpy ride!! Anni
Weekend for week of 6/22/09
6/22/09 03:15 APOL If rhythm continues, this touching the 200 will reverse toward the $64 and $62 areas
6/22/09 04:00 NFLX look to retrace to $40 if it breaks below it could fill the gap. 50dma keeping lid on long will be called above the $42 to $44 area.
6/22/09 03;30 POT looks ripe for a pause being supported at the 200dma and may bounce between the 50 & 200 . 200 tends to be the stronger support and breaking that, it's on the way to $80. on a bounce look to fill the gap. Dollar and treasury auction will impact. Depending on open,, look to drop and test the 200 then depending on momentum look to short below the 200dma $90 , Long above $94 to about $97 +.
6/22 03:20 VNO Back into the channel, VNO seems ready for another run but the 50dma seems to cap it. Watch long the $46.80 area, if it breaks above to $47, $48 again is plausible. Wait for direction. Short below $44 to lower range. Housing and Fed news will effect this.
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Now playing: Michael Jackson - Remember the Time
via FoxyTunes
Life relates to trading and trading relates to life. Constantly revealing, unfolding before us as we trade and live, so I write about how my life relates to trading and how I trade the markets. Along the way I share my opinions on anything that evokes my passion or tickles my funny bone trying not to forget that enjoying life is the best part of living.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
S & P and FOMC
I don't see any change in the S&P chart to warrant any updates from my original comments on 6/22/09. There are now many mentions of the 880 (not the Interstate) on Twitter and Stocktwits which I've outlined as being strong support area on my chart on the 22nd. My number is 879 but in fact it can fluctuate anywhere from low to high in that 11day support period and I think we won't be out of the woods until we retrace and hold 930 upside. The 879 is a critical support, but emotions must be controlled if panic is to be abated. Put stops in if holding any longs and adhere to them.
The FOMC will add volatility and at this critical juncture it won't help as people await their decision. It is best to watch, flat, before and after while the reaction washes out. I also tune out all analysis and just watch the market as the charts tell the true story because in this game the winner takes it all.
Happy Trading, Dancing and Living
Anni
Monday, June 22, 2009
SPX Update: The Fed Watch Is On
Will it rally or will it fizzle? the 50dma is sitting just under the 200dma this double support could bode well for the S&P because it tends to be strong both is anticipation and in fear; the fear of losing out. For all the hubub, the S&P didn't really move much Friday; opening and and closing prices were within a couple of points.
The hesitation here or the continued treading will probably not end until the FOMC meeting and announcement and the results of the Treasury Auction becomes available.
That is not to say that we are unable to trade this because there's enough volatility with the fears battling each other to put in a trade or two, but those who do, better be ready for a quick and possibly sharp swing in the market.
There's also the discussion on the net about the Fed's motivations behind the markets remember that the enemy is the "expectation". It is better to be ready for anything than to presume we know what will happen and why. Without expectation, you can be ready for anything, and react much quicker to changes.
There are always possibilities and SPX is no exception: SPX will drop toward the 200 dma around 902 or raise toward the 950 at good/bad news with more volatility. It can follow the 50dma up or it can drop with both the 200 and 50 down to below 900. The range is highlighted in a red box on the chart. Note that there were 11 days consolidating the bottom and 11 days consolidating the top of that range. Fascinating rhythm !
Happy Trading, Dancing and Living
Anni
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Now playing: Ella Fitzgerald - Fascinating Rhythm
via FoxyTunes
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Trading List Final Update Week of 6/15/2009
Final Thoughts/Results for the Week:
POT High $114.52 to Low of $91.86 Last $92.72.
Performed best this week with stellar returns, almost hitting the predicted low of $91. Do I think it's over? I will analyze for next weeks picks
GDX From a High of 39.38 to Low of $37.50
Last $38.39. GDX afforded several points and came close to breaking the $37.
VNO High $48 Low $43.21, Last $45.10.
Still within range, again played well early in week for a short before turning its head upward. Don't think we will let go of VNO just yet as a trading vehicle.
PNC High $41.95 Low $37.30 Last $40.18.
Hit the #1 target and proceeded lower before bouncing. Will analyze this nice mover going forward again.
MUR High $59.24 Low $54.65 Last $54.95.
Added midweek, this too yielded a target's worth of returns.
UNG High $16.26 Low $14.71 Last $15.16.
Also added midweek, this is watched and talked about by so many traders that I thought I'd add into the mix. As stated before the holding that $16 is crucial. Trading against the grain by going long without that $16 support is risking being stopped. Although coming close, UNG never finished the day above $16 for the week.
SOHU High $66.75 Low $62.50 Last $64.55.
Hitting target of $64 SOHU settled lower and looked almost to head all the way to the next target of $61 before the China market reversed. Another one to keep on books for next week.
UTX High $55.40 Low 53.97 Last $54.20.
The beauty of UTX is that it will deliver but not in a stellar fashion. Opening the week below our entry point, it delivered the target on Monday and it never afforded another favorable entry point for the week trading withing the range.
SKF High $45.67 Low $$40.17 Last $41.83.
SKF never triggered the short position called. Perhaps I'm an optimist (tic, says she) and you have to be to go short on SKF. I continue to reassess and eventully it'll teach me or I'll teach it not to mess with me. Seriously I've maintained that SKF is not for playing with and I try to pick it on safe side. Glad I did this week as it continues to whip along.
DISH High $15.53 Low $14.50 Last $15.18
It is one of those requiring patience for returns. Took 3 days to get to the low of the week wiggling between the high and the low and now looks to have bottomed on the daily. Since there are better traders out there, I will not continue to follow this on the dailies.
NFLX High $42.81 Low 41.42 Last $41.59 This the Daily range for Friday only
Added for Friday, NFLX did give a small return before pulling back. I will continue to monitor this one for next week.
Wishing you all a great weekend and Happy Fathers Day to all the great Daddies out there.
As always,
Anni
Week History Below
Friday
6/19/2009 POT hit below $92 to low of $91.86.
6/19 01:00 Watch for chopp, mush and whip throughout the day mostly, expect slowdown in afternoon trading as tripple witching day comes to end. Suggest no trades unless a real clear opportunity presents itself. When in doubt, don't trade.
6/19/2009 00:05 GDX ,MUR, POT, SOHU, UTX, VNO, guidelines as yesterday
6/19/2009 00:05 NFLX Long abvoe $42.30 target $43.30, $43.85, $46 areas (50dma could keep lid on this) Short below $40 target $38.50 breaking lower to $37.50 area
6/19/2009 00:05 TIE in answer to a question on Stocktwits
Thursday
6/17 23:35 Update for this Stellar Day + what to expect for Thursday.
6/17 23:35 GDX target hit near $37 @ $37.135 day low. It also afforded opportunity for long play back up to opening price. Thursday 6/18 call long above $38.20 watch 38.60 area target near of at $39.20 stop 37.90. Short below $37.70 target $36.60 stop $38.11 Again morning should give direction on this.
6/17 23:35 MUR Short on open, it yielded to a little below $55 giving a 1+ point gain. Will be watching for direction on this for Thursday. as it has broken down the channel, If it breaks $54 near $53 is possible then $52 below the 50dma. Upside look for above $56.60 to about $58.
6/17 23:35 PNC hit 1st target of $38 in first 20min of trading then after a brief bounce proceeded to day low at $37.30 before retracing its loss to near hod, it again reversed. For 6/18 expect a bounce in the morning,. upon reversal if a sell off follow previous direction targets $37 then $35 respectively.
6/17 23:35 POT yielded us $10+ points from yesterday hitting targets premarket of $105, 100 and then after market open, $97. POT has possibility to $91 but it will be a rough ride..lots of obstacles on the way. I expect a bounce here somewhere soon. It could come from $91+ area or 96 & higher watch morning action/gaps before open.
6/17 23:35 SOHU another winner hitting 2nd target from yesterday at $63.20. Further down possible to $62 area however Chinese stocks started a move up so stop on shorts $64.52 short below 63.80 to retest low and possible move to $62 then $60 area.
6/17 23:35 UNG broke $16 early but receded. Long it has a chance to retrace $17+ high from May 2009. Stop $15
6/17 23:35UTX No trades triggered today.
6/17 23:35 VNO beginning to feel like a wino enjoying VNO so much. :) landed in lap at target $43.50 if down day on Thursday it could kiss the target of near $42.
Thats it folks. I expect a very choppy day due to options expiration of Friday. Also all eyes will be riveted to RIMM including mine so Happy Trading..and protect your gains!
Wednesday
6/17 03:16 GDX $38 target broken 2nd day in row but not as low as the day before; also it closed higher, indicating a possible bounce. Still a bearish skance so I'll continue the call stated on Monday. Wait for morning action before deciding direction.
6/17 03:16 MUR New to list, chart updated entry short $57.50 or below target $56 to $54 stop $58. Long $58 target $60, stop $57.50
6/17 03:16 PNC Closed 1st time below the $40 @ $39.39 now viewing 1st target of $38 then possible to as low as $35 if breaks below $39 stop $40.70. Also keep Monday's guidelines in mind if market pops in the morning.
6/17 03:30 POT gave us $110 and then some. Once losing $110 it dropped only to be tested slightly at $107.25 but market momentum canceled it. Watch morning action for a bounce then a possible futher downside to $105. Because of the season and earnings forward, the $97 possibility is not as likely as a bounce upward, but it could test the $100 before it heads back north. Caution as it gets more volatile is advised. Long above $111.
6/17 03:55 SOHU $64 target hit yesterday and market closed at target. Next is looking for that gap to fill target at about $63.20. Depending on China and market action, SOHU could go to $61, $60 and $58 respectively if it breaks below the gap. Looking at this as short term now, with stop @ $ 66.50 & re - entry based on market action, on downtrend below $66. Long now above the $67 to $69 area.
6/17 04:00 UNG filled the gap and then receded to almost retest the trendline. As said before, see 6/11 chart, UNG needs to maintain above $16 to continue it's uptrend.
6/17 04:00 UTX Breaking $54 will be the key for lower to $53 where it has strong support at the gap. Stop now @ $55.50 . Above is long as stated on Weekly call.
6/17 04:00 VNO What a nice trader this turned out to be for the past several weeks I've been following it. Still in a channel we are now looking at $44 -$43.50 then near $42 target. Long is still as stated on Monday.
Tuesday
6/16 17:20 PNC keeps popping and affording a short entry at $40.70 today for first time it closed below the $40 @ $39.39
6/16 17:20 GDX hit $38 target again today, giving 2 1+ point gains per day. Although breaking $38 it did not make a lower low.
6/16 following triggered from the Trading List: PNC short $40.70 now @ $39.70; POT Short 112.50 near hit $110 target now below $109; VNO Short $47 b2nd target of $45 hit, now below; SOHU Short $66 target $64 hit. GDX Short $39.20 stop @ $39.55
Monday
6/15 GDX $38 target. having a real tough time here breaking below .
6/15 PNC long stopped at breakeven. Now Short at 40.70
6/15 GDX at target area it follows the market as mentioned below.
6/15 POT hit target $112.50 from open entry
6/15 UTX hit target of $54
6/15 VNO target hit $46.50
Weekend for 6/15/2009
6/13 DISH Short below 14.99 target 14.35 then 13.25 areas.
6/13 DISH Long above 15.50 target 16.25 then 18 area
6/14 GDX Generally it follows the market not the dollar.. so I suspect it will continue to do so this week. Looks to reverse her for a long above 40.30 area to about 41. look for momentum for 42 area. Short below $39.25 to about $38 if market breaks, look for lower to $37 level.
6/13 PNC slightly bearish looking to short below the 40.70 to 38 area stop above close friday.
6/13 PNC Long above 41.50 target 42.50 up to 45 area
6/13 POT short below 116 targets 114.50 112.50 110 stop 119.50
6/14 SKF short $39.90 stop $42.26 target $38 This is strictly a daytrade, therefore I analyse it everyday for entry & exits accordingly.
6/13 UTX short 55.75 target 54 stop 57
6/13 UTX long 56.60 to 57.60 stop 55.75
6/13 SOHU SHORT BELOW 66 target 64 63.20 below that 60.80 area long above 69 to 71 area
6/13 VNO Long above $48.64 target $49.50, $50 stop 46.20
6/13 VNO short below 48 target 46.50 area breaking 46 target 45 area
POT High $114.52 to Low of $91.86 Last $92.72.
Performed best this week with stellar returns, almost hitting the predicted low of $91. Do I think it's over? I will analyze for next weeks picks
GDX From a High of 39.38 to Low of $37.50
Last $38.39. GDX afforded several points and came close to breaking the $37.
VNO High $48 Low $43.21, Last $45.10.
Still within range, again played well early in week for a short before turning its head upward. Don't think we will let go of VNO just yet as a trading vehicle.
PNC High $41.95 Low $37.30 Last $40.18.
Hit the #1 target and proceeded lower before bouncing. Will analyze this nice mover going forward again.
MUR High $59.24 Low $54.65 Last $54.95.
Added midweek, this too yielded a target's worth of returns.
UNG High $16.26 Low $14.71 Last $15.16.
Also added midweek, this is watched and talked about by so many traders that I thought I'd add into the mix. As stated before the holding that $16 is crucial. Trading against the grain by going long without that $16 support is risking being stopped. Although coming close, UNG never finished the day above $16 for the week.
SOHU High $66.75 Low $62.50 Last $64.55.
Hitting target of $64 SOHU settled lower and looked almost to head all the way to the next target of $61 before the China market reversed. Another one to keep on books for next week.
UTX High $55.40 Low 53.97 Last $54.20.
The beauty of UTX is that it will deliver but not in a stellar fashion. Opening the week below our entry point, it delivered the target on Monday and it never afforded another favorable entry point for the week trading withing the range.
SKF High $45.67 Low $$40.17 Last $41.83.
SKF never triggered the short position called. Perhaps I'm an optimist (tic, says she) and you have to be to go short on SKF. I continue to reassess and eventully it'll teach me or I'll teach it not to mess with me. Seriously I've maintained that SKF is not for playing with and I try to pick it on safe side. Glad I did this week as it continues to whip along.
DISH High $15.53 Low $14.50 Last $15.18
It is one of those requiring patience for returns. Took 3 days to get to the low of the week wiggling between the high and the low and now looks to have bottomed on the daily. Since there are better traders out there, I will not continue to follow this on the dailies.
NFLX High $42.81 Low 41.42 Last $41.59 This the Daily range for Friday only
Added for Friday, NFLX did give a small return before pulling back. I will continue to monitor this one for next week.
Wishing you all a great weekend and Happy Fathers Day to all the great Daddies out there.
As always,
Anni
Week History Below
Friday
6/19/2009 POT hit below $92 to low of $91.86.
6/19 01:00 Watch for chopp, mush and whip throughout the day mostly, expect slowdown in afternoon trading as tripple witching day comes to end. Suggest no trades unless a real clear opportunity presents itself. When in doubt, don't trade.
6/19/2009 00:05 GDX ,MUR, POT, SOHU, UTX, VNO, guidelines as yesterday
6/19/2009 00:05 NFLX Long abvoe $42.30 target $43.30, $43.85, $46 areas (50dma could keep lid on this) Short below $40 target $38.50 breaking lower to $37.50 area
6/19/2009 00:05 TIE in answer to a question on Stocktwits
Thursday
6/17 23:35 Update for this Stellar Day + what to expect for Thursday.
6/17 23:35 GDX target hit near $37 @ $37.135 day low. It also afforded opportunity for long play back up to opening price. Thursday 6/18 call long above $38.20 watch 38.60 area target near of at $39.20 stop 37.90. Short below $37.70 target $36.60 stop $38.11 Again morning should give direction on this.
6/17 23:35 MUR Short on open, it yielded to a little below $55 giving a 1+ point gain. Will be watching for direction on this for Thursday. as it has broken down the channel, If it breaks $54 near $53 is possible then $52 below the 50dma. Upside look for above $56.60 to about $58.
6/17 23:35 PNC hit 1st target of $38 in first 20min of trading then after a brief bounce proceeded to day low at $37.30 before retracing its loss to near hod, it again reversed. For 6/18 expect a bounce in the morning,. upon reversal if a sell off follow previous direction targets $37 then $35 respectively.
6/17 23:35 POT yielded us $10+ points from yesterday hitting targets premarket of $105, 100 and then after market open, $97. POT has possibility to $91 but it will be a rough ride..lots of obstacles on the way. I expect a bounce here somewhere soon. It could come from $91+ area or 96 & higher watch morning action/gaps before open.
6/17 23:35 SOHU another winner hitting 2nd target from yesterday at $63.20. Further down possible to $62 area however Chinese stocks started a move up so stop on shorts $64.52 short below 63.80 to retest low and possible move to $62 then $60 area.
6/17 23:35 UNG broke $16 early but receded. Long it has a chance to retrace $17+ high from May 2009. Stop $15
6/17 23:35UTX No trades triggered today.
6/17 23:35 VNO beginning to feel like a wino enjoying VNO so much. :) landed in lap at target $43.50 if down day on Thursday it could kiss the target of near $42.
Thats it folks. I expect a very choppy day due to options expiration of Friday. Also all eyes will be riveted to RIMM including mine so Happy Trading..and protect your gains!
Wednesday
6/17 03:16 GDX $38 target broken 2nd day in row but not as low as the day before; also it closed higher, indicating a possible bounce. Still a bearish skance so I'll continue the call stated on Monday. Wait for morning action before deciding direction.
6/17 03:16 MUR New to list, chart updated entry short $57.50 or below target $56 to $54 stop $58. Long $58 target $60, stop $57.50
6/17 03:16 PNC Closed 1st time below the $40 @ $39.39 now viewing 1st target of $38 then possible to as low as $35 if breaks below $39 stop $40.70. Also keep Monday's guidelines in mind if market pops in the morning.
6/17 03:30 POT gave us $110 and then some. Once losing $110 it dropped only to be tested slightly at $107.25 but market momentum canceled it. Watch morning action for a bounce then a possible futher downside to $105. Because of the season and earnings forward, the $97 possibility is not as likely as a bounce upward, but it could test the $100 before it heads back north. Caution as it gets more volatile is advised. Long above $111.
6/17 03:55 SOHU $64 target hit yesterday and market closed at target. Next is looking for that gap to fill target at about $63.20. Depending on China and market action, SOHU could go to $61, $60 and $58 respectively if it breaks below the gap. Looking at this as short term now, with stop @ $ 66.50 & re - entry based on market action, on downtrend below $66. Long now above the $67 to $69 area.
6/17 04:00 UNG filled the gap and then receded to almost retest the trendline. As said before, see 6/11 chart, UNG needs to maintain above $16 to continue it's uptrend.
6/17 04:00 UTX Breaking $54 will be the key for lower to $53 where it has strong support at the gap. Stop now @ $55.50 . Above is long as stated on Weekly call.
6/17 04:00 VNO What a nice trader this turned out to be for the past several weeks I've been following it. Still in a channel we are now looking at $44 -$43.50 then near $42 target. Long is still as stated on Monday.
Tuesday
6/16 17:20 PNC keeps popping and affording a short entry at $40.70 today for first time it closed below the $40 @ $39.39
6/16 17:20 GDX hit $38 target again today, giving 2 1+ point gains per day. Although breaking $38 it did not make a lower low.
6/16 following triggered from the Trading List: PNC short $40.70 now @ $39.70; POT Short 112.50 near hit $110 target now below $109; VNO Short $47 b2nd target of $45 hit, now below; SOHU Short $66 target $64 hit. GDX Short $39.20 stop @ $39.55
Monday
6/15 GDX $38 target. having a real tough time here breaking below .
6/15 PNC long stopped at breakeven. Now Short at 40.70
6/15 GDX at target area it follows the market as mentioned below.
6/15 POT hit target $112.50 from open entry
6/15 UTX hit target of $54
6/15 VNO target hit $46.50
Weekend for 6/15/2009
6/13 DISH Short below 14.99 target 14.35 then 13.25 areas.
6/13 DISH Long above 15.50 target 16.25 then 18 area
6/14 GDX Generally it follows the market not the dollar.. so I suspect it will continue to do so this week. Looks to reverse her for a long above 40.30 area to about 41. look for momentum for 42 area. Short below $39.25 to about $38 if market breaks, look for lower to $37 level.
6/13 PNC slightly bearish looking to short below the 40.70 to 38 area stop above close friday.
6/13 PNC Long above 41.50 target 42.50 up to 45 area
6/13 POT short below 116 targets 114.50 112.50 110 stop 119.50
6/14 SKF short $39.90 stop $42.26 target $38 This is strictly a daytrade, therefore I analyse it everyday for entry & exits accordingly.
6/13 UTX short 55.75 target 54 stop 57
6/13 UTX long 56.60 to 57.60 stop 55.75
6/13 SOHU SHORT BELOW 66 target 64 63.20 below that 60.80 area long above 69 to 71 area
6/13 VNO Long above $48.64 target $49.50, $50 stop 46.20
6/13 VNO short below 48 target 46.50 area breaking 46 target 45 area
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Waiting for the Right Move
Last week was a treading week. I said tread not trend or trade. I had a feeling that most traders and voyeurs of the markets were fixated on the $SPX. 920-950 was the key above which they could breathe, below it they would sigh or die; flip that for bears. I'm not sure, but I would imagine that a significant move either way would have had major action, which I think can still occur next week because the watch is not over. Notice that I wrote a significant move not the slightly bullish nibbling that has actually occurred, because we did gain on the week. This treading should be no surprise as it is the first retracement line for the 2008 high at 1406 set on 2008/05/29 and the fact that we peaked ever so slightly above the mark is a testament for the test. Of course it is not assurance that it will continue.
What is encouraging, in addition to the slight upward move, is that the price has not oscillated between testing the 200dma and the retracement line. If it had, I think there would be many traders already washed out; but because it's clinging closer to the retracement line, it's encouraging more buyers who are anticipating the next move up. The fear of losing out is strong and one of the hardest urges to resist.
The other encouraging sign, and maybe more significant, is that we've been here before with much more volatile reaction. Notice on the chart: 2008 Oct 22, Nov 06, Nov 10; each only a single occurrence with a strong pullback, the last being on 2009 Jan 06 only breathed at the retracement line before scuttling down and setting the low in March. So what is different?
The 200dma is now below the up trending price, ready to meet the 50dma which has followed the trend up. Whether the 50 dma will cross over the 200dma, only time will tell and given the current set up it is easily imaginable that it will. The strength of that possibility is what is currently holding this treading (sideways) pattern. From here there are three possible outcomes that I see which are all compelling enough to have me wait until it's revealed. The first, being the most obvious, is that we break out above with the 50dma being the rocket booster and don't look back until 1000 or even 1040. The second that once the 50dma hits, the market will pop to just above into the 960-980 and pull back on strong sell off to retest the 200dma after which it will take off again; of third, that it will break the 200dma and retest the lows.
I think we only have the chart for a visible and visual answer. Other data such as, the world is still spinning, and No. Korea has not yet wiped California off the map, or any other fleeting news about money, real estate, jobs, politics or life, are only opinions. Although important and all enter the equation, they are not visibly measured yet; or at least not yet accurately. A chart however gives you a visual picture with which you see history and can draw conclusions, given that certain things about behavior remain the same.
Predictions discussed by the media and written in blogs like mine are both bullish and bearish. My plan is to be ready for whichever way the market moves, remembering that, with all the possible trades in the markets, there's always time to join the parade before it passes me by.
Happy Trading and Living!
Anni
Trading List Jun 08 - Jun 12
Hello Traders,
Please see the linked chart list on the left side bar for all calls. Hope this will make it easier for you to access the visuals.
The week that was a sideways move still yielded some good trades some with patience others with agility. UNG continues to be a "mistery" and will remain on the list with the caution I posted on the charts. DGX opened below the $40 on friday for a short but had strong support around $39.50 so decided not to hold over for Monday. EQR, gapped down at open and was not entered, but continues to be on watch for next week. VNO was reversal play after opening with a gap low to test the day before proceeding to move back to $48 where it was supported for the rest of the day. I made no other plays from the list on Friday.
Anni
Please see the linked chart list on the left side bar for all calls. Hope this will make it easier for you to access the visuals.
The week that was a sideways move still yielded some good trades some with patience others with agility. UNG continues to be a "mistery" and will remain on the list with the caution I posted on the charts. DGX opened below the $40 on friday for a short but had strong support around $39.50 so decided not to hold over for Monday. EQR, gapped down at open and was not entered, but continues to be on watch for next week. VNO was reversal play after opening with a gap low to test the day before proceeding to move back to $48 where it was supported for the rest of the day. I made no other plays from the list on Friday.
- 6/11 UNG, DGX, EQR charts added to list late evening for Friday
- 6/11 SOHU if you watched China o/n it was time for profits. Will check for re-entry
- 6/11 VNO short trigger again below $48, lower low today.
- 6/11 PNC short in morning then turned positive
- 6/11 WMT finally broke down entry was at $49.69 now lod
- 6/11 IBM back on watchlist break higher to elusive $111-$112?
- 6/10 MCD stopped @ b/e. Going to watch it another day
- 6/10 PNC If you weren't quick at the open, you missed the gains. I was stopped w/small gain. Looking at the 15min it seems obvious but on the day it's barely a blip. Consider using the 15 to watch for a breakdown and resistance in at the 42.50/42.75 area
- 6/10 SOHU in money, watch where market takes China o/n. This is a Cup pattern trying to fill see pattern from Sept on chart.
- 6/10 UTX afforded a couple of good plays today short and long
- 6/10 VNO exited @ $50 since it stalled and hit $51; short triggered below $48. Since it broke down the $48 caution going long ahead watch $48.75 area. New chart uploaded
- 6/10 WMT long hold from yesterday stopped for loss; short triggered $50.30 did not break the $49.70 covered @$50. May break down watch the 49.70 break and the 200 dma for resistance for long entry.
- 6/9 Long triggers SOHU VNO WMT PNC MCD
- 6/8 China Play SOHU long above 68.50 to $71. Short below $66 to $64 /$63 then $60
- 6/8 MCD so far the 200dma is support . Gap up is pssible to $61 . Breaking down the 200 dma look for about $56
- 6/8 WMT failed h&s breakdown. Look long above $51 to resistance, then near $53 breaking above the 200 look to $55. Short below 50dma to test treandline near 48.50. http://www.twitpic.com/6ys5r
- 6/8 UTX Play between $54-$58 breakout to $61 breakdown from $54 to $52 & $50.
- 6/8 VNO tight and ready for a move. Above $49 looking to $51 and again $52, $54. Short breakdown below trendline to test the 50dma around $45, $42, $40. http://www.twitpic.com/6ys65
- 6/8 PNC short below 41.44 to aboub $40 below look to $37. Long above $44 http://www.twitpic.com/6ys6z
- 6/8 SKF hit a 52 week low Friday I think this has further downside (to about $34 area) although there are many collectors. Serious upside I don't see until it breaks $46.
Anni
Thursday, June 11, 2009
The Killing on Wall Street
I don't like to write negative articles. I like to write things that even if warning of a negative, there are solutions for the outcome. Everything I've written is in that vein, yet now I increasingly find that I am coming to a point of facing the biggest challenge in my life. A struggle to stay positive.
I look at the markets each morning and I'm actually surprised to see a positive attitude and a positive outcome on the boards. I like green a lot, yet I am thinking it should all be red. After all, the blood of the USA is being spilled everyday.
The blood of the the soldiers of the War of Independence is being spilt again everyday by people in Washington that have no idea what being not free means. They are so fast and furiously changing this country that the Constitution is not even regarded with a passing glance. I hear the news every day; I turn it off, yet when I listen to the radio, I hear it again. I look at the markets and the disconnect is uncanny, therefore I can only come to one conclusion. I am witnessing the killing of America and everyone is clueless.
I know that's not true. I know that many citizens are not clueless and many traders among them are not either. In fact traders tend to be most savvy as to what is happening, yet I do believe that many do not wish to add things up; connect-the-dots. It's easier not to. It's hard because daily we are faced with another onslaught of changes proposed, which Congress folds into writing and accepting, and shoving down the throats of the rest of us. "Like it or Not". It's like a feeding frenzy, and the elected government officials are at the trough. What's interesting is that the government calls Wall St. greedy, yet they are the ones who can't get enough. This government and administration can't stop themselves from taking more and more control; and doing so they are killing those who have built and assured their prosperity, one by one.
The deficit is tripled since February 1st. Yet the market is rallying. I remember people/news being outraged at Republicans spending too much in the mid 1990's. The market was down. Where is the outrage now?
There's a lag from Washington to Wall Street. It's now about 4 months. It used to be longer but with the modern communication abilities it takes less time. Of course the route is not direct; it goes through Main Street because in reality, it's people who make Wall Street tick,.
Wall Street reacts to the people, not to Washington; it is driven by what the people do, earn, lose, buy, sell, all of course a demonstration about how they feel. That is why the business media is obsessed with how the people are doing; prosperity being important because without people investing, there's no Wall St.
Main Street IS Wall Street regardless of how much this administration tries to separate it.
The greed of this administration becomes evident by their actions. They want to kill Wall Street so they can have people invest in them. It is what this President is asking you day after day. "Trust us", he says. "Let us take care of you, don't let that greedy bunch on Walls Street cheat you out of your money!" "Wall Street and the Businesses have failed you, capitalism has failed you, so give US your money and we'll take care of you." A Socialistic Utopia, that leads to suppression. Nothing less.
The narcissism flowing out of this administration is absolutely jaw dropping. The President and Congress is asking you to hand over your money despite the long history of government failed programs. There is not ONE prosperous business that was or is run by government. Even their cafeterias had to be outsourced to a private enterprise because it lost money; yet they ask you to turn your money over to them to invest for you. If you think you were scre*d by Wall St. you haven't yet invested in government.
Four months ago, the beginning of February, people were elated and mesmerized by this new administration. The new "Camelot" has taken seat; so now the Wall St. is still basking in the positive flow. By now, the taxpayers should be realizing that the $720 billion bailout stimulus plan passed at the end of February is an utter failure. The promised 8% cap on unemployment is far surpassed. More and more businesses are failing, never mind the housing, and they keep throwing more money out the window; just today with the $45 billion dollar clunker tax, to add to the other lengthty list. Anything government spends whether it it has funds for or not, is a TAX. Make not mistake about that! So let's give it a few more months and see if they are satisfied with how much they passed or will there me more.
My bet is that there will be a lot more. Government is not a business and they do not know how to run one efficiently but they are in the habit of spending money or better put, buying your faith, trust and most of all, VOTE. It's bad enough that the government engages in name calling to lay blame on Wall Street and the "rich" for all our woes, but what is worse is that many people bewlieve and repeat the lie.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
I look at the markets each morning and I'm actually surprised to see a positive attitude and a positive outcome on the boards. I like green a lot, yet I am thinking it should all be red. After all, the blood of the USA is being spilled everyday.
The blood of the the soldiers of the War of Independence is being spilt again everyday by people in Washington that have no idea what being not free means. They are so fast and furiously changing this country that the Constitution is not even regarded with a passing glance. I hear the news every day; I turn it off, yet when I listen to the radio, I hear it again. I look at the markets and the disconnect is uncanny, therefore I can only come to one conclusion. I am witnessing the killing of America and everyone is clueless.
I know that's not true. I know that many citizens are not clueless and many traders among them are not either. In fact traders tend to be most savvy as to what is happening, yet I do believe that many do not wish to add things up; connect-the-dots. It's easier not to. It's hard because daily we are faced with another onslaught of changes proposed, which Congress folds into writing and accepting, and shoving down the throats of the rest of us. "Like it or Not". It's like a feeding frenzy, and the elected government officials are at the trough. What's interesting is that the government calls Wall St. greedy, yet they are the ones who can't get enough. This government and administration can't stop themselves from taking more and more control; and doing so they are killing those who have built and assured their prosperity, one by one.
The deficit is tripled since February 1st. Yet the market is rallying. I remember people/news being outraged at Republicans spending too much in the mid 1990's. The market was down. Where is the outrage now?
There's a lag from Washington to Wall Street. It's now about 4 months. It used to be longer but with the modern communication abilities it takes less time. Of course the route is not direct; it goes through Main Street because in reality, it's people who make Wall Street tick,.
Wall Street reacts to the people, not to Washington; it is driven by what the people do, earn, lose, buy, sell, all of course a demonstration about how they feel. That is why the business media is obsessed with how the people are doing; prosperity being important because without people investing, there's no Wall St.
Main Street IS Wall Street regardless of how much this administration tries to separate it.
The greed of this administration becomes evident by their actions. They want to kill Wall Street so they can have people invest in them. It is what this President is asking you day after day. "Trust us", he says. "Let us take care of you, don't let that greedy bunch on Walls Street cheat you out of your money!" "Wall Street and the Businesses have failed you, capitalism has failed you, so give US your money and we'll take care of you." A Socialistic Utopia, that leads to suppression. Nothing less.
The narcissism flowing out of this administration is absolutely jaw dropping. The President and Congress is asking you to hand over your money despite the long history of government failed programs. There is not ONE prosperous business that was or is run by government. Even their cafeterias had to be outsourced to a private enterprise because it lost money; yet they ask you to turn your money over to them to invest for you. If you think you were scre*d by Wall St. you haven't yet invested in government.
Four months ago, the beginning of February, people were elated and mesmerized by this new administration. The new "Camelot" has taken seat; so now the Wall St. is still basking in the positive flow. By now, the taxpayers should be realizing that the $720 billion bailout stimulus plan passed at the end of February is an utter failure. The promised 8% cap on unemployment is far surpassed. More and more businesses are failing, never mind the housing, and they keep throwing more money out the window; just today with the $45 billion dollar clunker tax, to add to the other lengthty list. Anything government spends whether it it has funds for or not, is a TAX. Make not mistake about that! So let's give it a few more months and see if they are satisfied with how much they passed or will there me more.
My bet is that there will be a lot more. Government is not a business and they do not know how to run one efficiently but they are in the habit of spending money or better put, buying your faith, trust and most of all, VOTE. It's bad enough that the government engages in name calling to lay blame on Wall Street and the "rich" for all our woes, but what is worse is that many people bewlieve and repeat the lie.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Trading List for Week of 6/1/09 - 6/5/09
We had a nice week.
- 6/4 ICE hit $120 the last minute before the closing bell.
- ICE broke through $119 2times on the 15min careful of a dbl top .. target still $120 area..tighten stops
- 6/4 ICE Looking at charts.. next target is about $120
- 6/4 ICE did not melt for long.. I used to make a jingle about it.. ICE is nice prepared with rice and lice carried on little feet by mice and served real nice for your surprise!
- 6/4 VNO nicely in the money on breakout of $48 today $50.50 was an important break..so is the 50.98 going forward. Good luck.. keep those stops in mind
- 6/3 VNO is within the $42-$48 range again. Suggest playing it within until it breaks upside or down. $54 currently seems far away. Patience here is the key, but not buy and hold with prayer.
- 6/3 GDX as suspected is pulling back. The caution flag proved fruitful. 1st entry below $43 today and second $ below $42 yielded nice gains. Keep same guidance as on chart with downside target of $40 and caution around the $39
- 6/3 ICE yesterday it hit target. Today it needed a rest
- 6/3 POT has had huge gains since March so on the daily this pullback looks like consolidation. $107.25 low from last week needs to be a concern. Today it filled the gap from 5/21 before reversing. Proceed with caution let the market tell you it's direction.. Watch $107.25 and the 200/50 dma
- 6/3 MCD ended today on hod. Two days each near point gain. Look for the morning 60 min to give you a clue for entry.
- 6/3 IBM $109 proved a big challange and it pulled back on barely a brush from$108.80 furthering decline today. A nice recovery in the final hour today touching a new resistance level developed at $106.50. Watch the 200dma for support on the downside. Upside needs a gap fill to $107.30 area
- 6/3 BIIB chart posted and entered long today 1st target hit and on pullback to entry 6/4 may prove another opportunity
- 6/1 MCD put up new chart post market keeping eye on for tomorrow
- 6/1 POT finally broke through that $117 for some nice gains to $121 before getting cold feet again.
- 6/1 BDN met the 200mda before pullback.. hope some profit takers there.
- 6/1 MT gap up this morning put's it on the yellow flag list. Careful of the gap fill.. take profits and keep small for forward gains
- 6/1 GDX caution flag was out all day on this and going forward pullback is in
- 6/1 IBM on nice track finally catching up.. will watch for the target.. remember what I said about the $109
- 6/1 VNO triggered for some who took update entry @ $48 and 2nd trigger at $50 from the 5/27 entry. Close above $49 encouraging.
- 6/1 update: FTO actually popped for FTO that is ..more interest coming into play here, volume picking up
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