Life relates to trading and trading relates to life. Constantly revealing, unfolding before us as we trade and live, so I write about how my life relates to trading and how I trade the markets. Along the way I share my opinions on anything that evokes my passion or tickles my funny bone trying not to forget that enjoying life is the best part of living.
I suppose that this would make a fascinating story have I the time to write it. So here it is in video form
The Last Call
The Unfinished Story
What is missing at the end of the video (ran out of time) is the coming gap for this morning. I'm figuring a visit to the previous high and breakout higher to about $213 now. Of course now analysts are upgrading it as well. We're all smart in hindsight.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
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Once again I find myself at odds with the euphoric outlook. Last year I saw the possibilities both ways, and my high prediction of the Dow 11800 was on the final horizon at the end of the year. This time I see "Warning! Avalanche Danger" signs instead of many more highs.
I tend to question myself all the time but I also tend to stick with my vision. Why? Because most of the time my first impression is the most accurate. That does not mean that I don't ride the direction of the market, it just means I carry a healthy amount of pessimism to hedge myself. So this is what I spoke about in my room today; this is what I see.
The leaders are not leading. Sure today AAPL reversed nearly 10 points but it's the 50% retrace from a 20 point 3 day drop. GOOG (no one saw it coming but me? ) $320 low then some add on bonus to $311 last Friday not to mention another 10 point drop this morning does not make the reversal such a great achievement. Sure you can say it's because the changing of the heads of both of those companies created an uncertainty, but I ask you do you really believe those companies will go under that quickly? Last week and this morning is revealing a panic like selling. Post earnings drops on good earnings are not the norm and neither are the long candles they create. They're not alone: PCLN CMG NFLX AMZN POT are a few more to keep as a reminder.
What looks good on the Dow, Nasdaq, SPX were not really the leaders they were the followers they were the basket of the rest in the Nasdaq 100 the SPX100 most are the stabilizers. You could say that it's good for the pause to let the rest catch up and I agree and that it's healthy for leaders to pull back and regroup and I agree again. Yet what is troubling is the frenzy with which these changes occur creating fast and vicious drops.
Today the DJIA closed at 11980. The initial part of this bull market started in March 2009 rising 4000 points in 10 months. The last time we took a pause was a thousand points ago which was last April. Although we have slowed the rise since that recovery, we still need to look at the fact that this last nearly 2000 points were achieved in the last 4 months from that minor correction. Compare that to the 1996-2000 stellar rise of 6568 points from a low of 5182 to 11750 which took 4 years and most of which we gave back to 7197 low in a modest 2 years. Then consider that it is stellar especially because it took 5 years almost to the day to recover 7001 points from Oct.10, 2002 low of 7197 to the all time high of 14198 on Oct. 11, 2007. The avalanche off that high, we can all recall because the Dow gave it all back and then some in just 18 months to a low of 6470.
Are you beginning to see the picture? Will we hit a higher high just to get to a lower low? The 11980 and higher will meet with major resistance points until it tops 12800, 13100 and tests the all time high.
Of course, the best way to survive an avalanche is not to be caught in one. Otherwise you have only a few options: Swim with the flow works but so does a lifeline and luck plays a large role. As with trading, the deeper you're buried, the less chance you have, hence swimming keeps you nearer to the top. A lifeline and beacon, can keep you from total disaster, so stops can be very handy. Of course once you are buried, you're at the mercy of others for rescue and that takes time so keep your air pocket stable and remain calm. Moral of this story: Be aware of where you are and be in control. As in skiing dangerous terrain, have a plan and know how to survive the trading avalanche.
Mechanical objects have an inherent risk of failure. Often enough one can predict when some may come to the end of their functionality by knowing their average life span but often enough, as in life, there are always those that stop functioning earlier than others.
It is also true that the odds of being the one hit such a failure comes into everyone's life at least once, of course we never know when. Let it be said, that mine happened last Thursday and it happened not just once but twice on the same day. I suppose that fate may have spotted an omission and decided to "catch up" at my expense. Two computers, 2 unrelated failures, both rendered unusable. Yep, those gremlins were hard at work.
Experienced traders know that nothing stops ones ability faster than total disconnect to platforms. It's blindness and it renders us helpless as well as useless, and knowing that, is why I always had two systems up running separately. If one failed, the other would be available; but fate had it's day with me and my worry lines got deeper.
To say that it was not a traumatic event would not put enough importance on the help I received from a friend who tirelessly spent the better of 5 days both in repair and recovery of my system and made it infinitely better than before. It reminded me how much time we devote to things we love to do. His love of knowing everything computers and enjoying that he can help others in need is very much what life is about. A purpose that is undefinable but one that makes life enjoyable.
I stopped fretting and despite the unwelcome event, I could not help but laugh in the end. It's what I've have been writing about and sharing here with many fellow traders since the beginning. Life is like trading and we have to be ready for whatever happens, so what we do should reflect what we enjoy doing and part of our equipment should not be the things around us but the humor inside of us. We never know what can happen next, so, did you bring your humor to work today?
One could not have asked for a better New Year's Day present than what equities dished up today. Starting strong, the pause was brief at 10am awaiting the reports for the day then there was no stopping this market. I actually thought for a minute, that my DJIA 10.800 prediction of last year would become a reality by only one trading day late. Alas, it was not to be but there is always tomorrow and that would be only 2 days late.
Reality is what it is, and euphoria makes us forget about what is looming ahead. No matter how one slices the pie, it eventually gets divided and consumed. So, we must pause at some point and ask the question "From whence the next pie will come?" because without the answer, we are riding in a balloon very high aloft.
Even if you think we are recovering nicely with construction spending, manufacturing and other so called growth signs we keep clinging onto, we cannot deny the debt we have accumulated which will take decades to repay even if we received it with zero interest. To put it simply, government will not repay this debt but they are looking at the source who will, and the source is US. Not the USA but us. Via, what means?
Taxes.
At some point government will kick into high gear looking for any means to cover their spending habits. Unfortunately, even with so many hopes pinned on a Republican Congress, it is reality that cutting government spending by 20% is still less likely and cutting it by 50% is just plain dreaming. But that is what we need in order to avoid what is coming like a freight train down the track.
Taxes.
Maybe once the freight train hits, the people will again awaken to the fact that no matter what you want your government to do for you, there is only one way to pay for it:
Taxes.
Sorry to put a damper on such fantastic day and such a Happy New Year. Of course if you don't like it, you can continue to subscribe to Mr. Fantasy.
