One, gone is the #1 concern (for the present time): Steve Jobs' health. Two, it has taken on a new concern, so the new #1 is the Japan (or supply) factor, and , #2 the economic factor. Many disregard the economic factor but perhaps I shall put it as #1, being me.
I have no doubt that people will buy high tech stuff and use it from here to eternity or until something better comes along. The question is how much of the high tech stuff we need to renew and how often. Some things we replace more often than others, hence the newer fancier, bigger, prettier, cheaper, etc. models of cars, clothes and high tech stuff. (Shoes don't forget the shoes ;)) We all want to be on the cutting edge of stuff until.... we need food more than even ...shoes.
I know that, there will always be people who can afford anything but will there be more people that can afford AAPL as a need or less in a year or two? Current economics are pumped, like it or not. It's hard to remember focused on the NYSE. But I ask you how much do you go out to shop for food or gas? You may be able to afford it on your traders "salary" but have you ever had to face inflation of this caliber before of a regular salary? Gasoline now at 4.27/gallon in California food prices are growing faster than food is. Smaller packaging, smaller quantities for same price as before can no longer be used because it has become too obvious. It has gone on for about two years now.
I also know that current techies will be replaced by new techies and like music, other things will drive their desire for ownership. Remember RIMM? (OK OK AAPL will NEVVER die!) That is for those that will die with AAPL, and there will be some. Current supplies lack because of Japan's unfortunate earthquake disaster and there is a question if AAPL will be able to meet the demand; which is also a price inflater. New unplanned costs for AAPL will reduce profit margins especially if they want to keep prices low. Dilemma of the markets for certain, and dilemma for investors as well.
So, as I said in my blips and tweets, patterns have to finish before a new direction can take hold, current glance suggests that AAPL is on a new direction, even though there is a touch of test that may wish to be visited again; just to be sure. There is another pattern that needs to be finished also; The Universal pattern that of ebb & flow or what goes up must come down. Thus have companies, countries, currencies, and rulers come and gone. Thus will we and AAPL face the same in time. Until then, take an apple a day. It is truly good for your health both financial and psychological; puts food on the table no matter what the cost, day trading AAPL is the inflation hedge as long as it stays liquid and that's about the long and the short of it. Except for the longer perspective shown on the Monthly below.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - AAPL A different perspective on the Monthly
©DayTrading with Anni 2011 All Rights Reserved
3 comments:
"...The question is how much of the high tech stuff we need to renew and how often...."
It's not only about you and me who needs to replace outdated tech stuff occasionally. It's about hundreds of thousands if not millions of kids around the world who every single day come to the point that they must own either iPhone, iPad or iSomethingElse no matter what.
I read it again, and I believe I understand that you are being cautious, I just meant in my original message to you that your concerns were addressed in the conference call. If you want to apply the unnecessary (in my opinion) and mostly refuted (by AAPL in the conference call) concerns of an investor to your daytrading strategy that is your choice. I just don't see how you can mix and match the two without actually listening to the people who know the answers to your fears (AAPL in the call) and still be profitable in the long run. Here are the links again to the call for any of your readers that may be interested.
you can listen to the $AAPL call here now http://bit.ly/hM9wrt or read it here shortly http://bit.ly/fpmtqe
Best of luck to you however you proceed.
Thanks for your comment, yes so very true, a recent student of mine from China bought an iPhone and a Sony laptop for the reasons you state. Youth will also be the ones that will flock to something new as you say, as soon as they believe the old is for the "old". Reason why I brought up RIMM. Currently AAPL is hot and RIMM is not, but youth too will be challenged by cost increases.
The question about re-newing tech stuff is a question of how much your money will buy when you don't have much. Also, for those who worry about being "green" (ecology) and not wasting that which still works. Of course that thought applies to anything we use.
Thanks,
Anni
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