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***** Or a break, with most watched earnings now behind us we may all need one. Earnings reprts created some volatility and the flash crash did not help, but seems that despite it all and lukewarm outlook for next quarter, the market pressed on. In my opinion it will press on as long as everyone believes that the lower outlook and missed revenues, and low growth expectations have already been braked in these markets.
On the other hand, when I look at the weekly charts, all I see is a relentless push upward since about October 2012 with only a couple of weeks for a brake (no pun) before continued enthusiasm. So where exactly is it accounted for? May I remind you that May is coming and what happens in May we may wish to take into consideration before it all goes away.
Of course, it may also be that it is I who needs to brake and take a break from it all. After all it's been a year since my last one.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $NDX $SPX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Friday, April 26, 2013
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
The Daily Note - $AAPL News: Something to Talk About
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*****Headlines are a marketing tool. Did I say something new to you by emphasizing that? Headlines are used to manipulate not just your opinion but also the markets. No matter what you buy and I don't mean just equities, but it's exactly where I got educated about the nature of the "beast".
Many years ago I became fascinated about why and how people react stupidly to bad information. Then and until the past ten years I was totally naive about how the media gets it's news. I was totally naive about media feeds, that is until, I became a media commentator/feeder myself to a trading room where I found that not only are headlines misleading, but also that the headlines they feed most often is the news that gets reported to the masses. Often the real story is not only buried in the story they feed, but more often the news they don't wish for the masses to pay attention to is not scrolled nearly as often on the headline stream.
Today I had to opportunity to tape the $AAPL news feed and how the headlines were streamed for people to pick-up and pass on. $AAPLEarnings Play and News. The news they wished to report were most often presented and the ones they wished to pass over were less often shown. It's that simple.
Beyond that piece of trivia, also pay attention to the news body and see where the real story lies; about 1/3-2/3 down is often where you'll find it most of the time. Believe it or not I remember a couple of stories where it did not appear until the closing paragraph. If you're a writer, you know that is supposed to be the summation, and not the news, so it is often disregarded in a quick read.
Besides a news feed, I get highly suspicious about any stock that is halted, so the lesson of the day and the $AAPL of the day goes to the ones that held back until the real story came out. Those, as my subscribers found out, are the ones best left to stew until the meat is cooked off the bones. After which the news (or meal) is much more enjoyable to understand, savor and digest and then something real to talk about.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $AAPL
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Many years ago I became fascinated about why and how people react stupidly to bad information. Then and until the past ten years I was totally naive about how the media gets it's news. I was totally naive about media feeds, that is until, I became a media commentator/feeder myself to a trading room where I found that not only are headlines misleading, but also that the headlines they feed most often is the news that gets reported to the masses. Often the real story is not only buried in the story they feed, but more often the news they don't wish for the masses to pay attention to is not scrolled nearly as often on the headline stream.
Today I had to opportunity to tape the $AAPL news feed and how the headlines were streamed for people to pick-up and pass on. $AAPLEarnings Play and News. The news they wished to report were most often presented and the ones they wished to pass over were less often shown. It's that simple.
Beyond that piece of trivia, also pay attention to the news body and see where the real story lies; about 1/3-2/3 down is often where you'll find it most of the time. Believe it or not I remember a couple of stories where it did not appear until the closing paragraph. If you're a writer, you know that is supposed to be the summation, and not the news, so it is often disregarded in a quick read.
Besides a news feed, I get highly suspicious about any stock that is halted, so the lesson of the day and the $AAPL of the day goes to the ones that held back until the real story came out. Those, as my subscribers found out, are the ones best left to stew until the meat is cooked off the bones. After which the news (or meal) is much more enjoyable to understand, savor and digest and then something real to talk about.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $AAPL
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Sunday, April 21, 2013
The Weekly Outlook _$DJIA $SPX $NDX Eyeing $AAPL All Over
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*****All eyes on AAPL once more and once again, but will it be the catalyst for a break higher? The market so far has weathered the $AAPL reverse fairly well and the earnings are not expected to be a blowout, so if AAPL reports a surprise, to the upside, it could become the catalyst for the markets to break out higher.
Then there are two other questions to be answered. Will it be sustainable if the $AAPL earnings are enough of a catalyst for the markets to break higher, and will $AAPL earnings on the downside be the straw that breaks the markets lower? These questions will be answered in short course, of course, so my speculation here is just something to consider as you watch what will become clear soon enough.
I think that expectations of AAPL are weaning and it will not be a surprise to me if the effect will not be too volatile on the markets, but then I am only two eyes on $AAPL and there are many more who still think it the best indicator of future tech. markets. Right or Wrong, Eye (I) for one, will be glad when it's done ;)
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Then there are two other questions to be answered. Will it be sustainable if the $AAPL earnings are enough of a catalyst for the markets to break higher, and will $AAPL earnings on the downside be the straw that breaks the markets lower? These questions will be answered in short course, of course, so my speculation here is just something to consider as you watch what will become clear soon enough.
I think that expectations of AAPL are weaning and it will not be a surprise to me if the effect will not be too volatile on the markets, but then I am only two eyes on $AAPL and there are many more who still think it the best indicator of future tech. markets. Right or Wrong, Eye (I) for one, will be glad when it's done ;)
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
The Daily Note - $DJIA $NDX $SPX Test This, Test That
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*****Generally tests are designed to show ones strengths and weaknesses on a subject. In trading, we use the term "test" for the same reason. Tests are when a previously hit price point or region is once again visited by the market. If the price can hold, it's considered strong but when it fails to hold then weakness is revealed.
Tests occur most often when uncertainty in the direction of the markets is present. If the same region is tested over and over again, it develops more strength to resist further attack. When test areas break, the action tends to be accelerated resulting in a bigger gain or loss. So never discount the chart showing a seeming boring sideways action.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Tests occur most often when uncertainty in the direction of the markets is present. If the same region is tested over and over again, it develops more strength to resist further attack. When test areas break, the action tends to be accelerated resulting in a bigger gain or loss. So never discount the chart showing a seeming boring sideways action.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
The Daily Note - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Disaster Struck
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*****It takes but an instant and lives and worlds change. My article yesterday referencing preparedness for a disaster was written during the midnight hours, long before disaster struck in Boston. It is usually during the night that my Muse descends and inspires me to write and I had no particular foresight about what was to come so soon.
After many years of doing so, I now seldom question as a topic starts to develop and compels me to translate it to paper. I have learned from many examples before, that no matter how untimely it seems, my topic ends up being timely, indeed. Often I have been tempted to deny such coincidences, but as in trading, it is in life, that when a stocks draws my attention no matter how briefly, I need to pay attention and prepare for the next possibility.
Of course we don't really know what is next; just that life will go on, opportunities will continue and disasters will strike at unexpected times. So we learn from them again.
Wishing everyone quick recovery
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
After many years of doing so, I now seldom question as a topic starts to develop and compels me to translate it to paper. I have learned from many examples before, that no matter how untimely it seems, my topic ends up being timely, indeed. Often I have been tempted to deny such coincidences, but as in trading, it is in life, that when a stocks draws my attention no matter how briefly, I need to pay attention and prepare for the next possibility.
Of course we don't really know what is next; just that life will go on, opportunities will continue and disasters will strike at unexpected times. So we learn from them again.
Wishing everyone quick recovery
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Monday, April 15, 2013
The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Gimme Shelter
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*****Has everyone given in yet? Have all the shorts capitulated? Is there only one way that these markets will forever go? It's amazing and amusing and we won't know where it'll end. So all eyes are now on earnings reports for the confidence boost and support.
It has long been said that a watched pot never boils. It's almost true in the sense that when we wait for something to occur because it is "long overdue", we may wait longer than a lifetime. Preparation for doom backfires for those to whom it never happens, but when a disaster hits, everyone deems the prepared person as having wise foresight. Then there are those people for whom all warnings go unheeded and never consider that the disaster can ever happen. They are known as "victims" in today's world, but considered as being "fools" in the past when survival of the fittest was regularly challenged
In trading as in life, survival is the key to success also but how we prepare for disasters. If we are overly pessimistic we tend to view situations with a weary eye toward the worst outcome and may not note the positive pressure. If we are overly optimistic we may think that we'll be able to react to a disaster as it occurs and need not take any preliminary action. In both scenarios a trader can be squeezed out beyond their expectation. So best to build a shelter, be it another vehicle for hedging or daily cash close or a firm grip and management of actual hard or trailing stops. With these tools we can still suffer a loss but keeping most of what we have is more likely than total loss.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $NDX $SPX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
It has long been said that a watched pot never boils. It's almost true in the sense that when we wait for something to occur because it is "long overdue", we may wait longer than a lifetime. Preparation for doom backfires for those to whom it never happens, but when a disaster hits, everyone deems the prepared person as having wise foresight. Then there are those people for whom all warnings go unheeded and never consider that the disaster can ever happen. They are known as "victims" in today's world, but considered as being "fools" in the past when survival of the fittest was regularly challenged
In trading as in life, survival is the key to success also but how we prepare for disasters. If we are overly pessimistic we tend to view situations with a weary eye toward the worst outcome and may not note the positive pressure. If we are overly optimistic we may think that we'll be able to react to a disaster as it occurs and need not take any preliminary action. In both scenarios a trader can be squeezed out beyond their expectation. So best to build a shelter, be it another vehicle for hedging or daily cash close or a firm grip and management of actual hard or trailing stops. With these tools we can still suffer a loss but keeping most of what we have is more likely than total loss.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $NDX $SPX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Saturday, April 13, 2013
The Weekend Note - Seasons Come, Seasons Go
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*****It's the end of one season and the beginning of another. We are officially in Spring, but there are other seasons within seasons that we tend to mark our memories with. The ski season is over, the sailing season will start in another week and for some of us traders, the earnings are just the ticket to gap the bridge.
Of course earnings season is longer than a week it actually lasts the quarter, but the markers happen within the 2-4th week. These are the earnings of the market leaders that traders watch each quarter and for which I create earnings plays. With the Dow and S&P 500 reaching new highs, the reaction to earnings may be more unpredictable than before but I feel that the reaction to beating or missing earnings forecasts will become much more positive and negative than in prior 4 years' quarters.
I think that most of my readers know that the unexpected results either way will bring more interest, but more than before the winners vs losers will become increasingly important and may determine whether the holders will stay or flee. Remember that the markets are at an all time high so earnings will need to not only fulfill the current expectation, but forecast a better outlook for the next and future quarters. If the consensus ends up on the negative side, expect more flee; if the positive side, expect more flow. That is not rocket science most of the time, but adding to the unknown is the usually "sell in May and go away" tradition.
After 4 years of bullish market and recent breakout high neither scenario is impossible.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Season's Pick .. First and Last Days at Heavenly Mountain Resort, Lake Tahoe, California
written and published from HimmelHausTahoe fun for food and drink in any season.
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Of course earnings season is longer than a week it actually lasts the quarter, but the markers happen within the 2-4th week. These are the earnings of the market leaders that traders watch each quarter and for which I create earnings plays. With the Dow and S&P 500 reaching new highs, the reaction to earnings may be more unpredictable than before but I feel that the reaction to beating or missing earnings forecasts will become much more positive and negative than in prior 4 years' quarters.
I think that most of my readers know that the unexpected results either way will bring more interest, but more than before the winners vs losers will become increasingly important and may determine whether the holders will stay or flee. Remember that the markets are at an all time high so earnings will need to not only fulfill the current expectation, but forecast a better outlook for the next and future quarters. If the consensus ends up on the negative side, expect more flee; if the positive side, expect more flow. That is not rocket science most of the time, but adding to the unknown is the usually "sell in May and go away" tradition.
After 4 years of bullish market and recent breakout high neither scenario is impossible.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Season's Pick .. First and Last Days at Heavenly Mountain Resort, Lake Tahoe, California
written and published from HimmelHausTahoe fun for food and drink in any season.
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Thursday, April 11, 2013
The Daily Outlook - $SPX $DJIA $NDX - Now That It's Over
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*****The full song goes, "What Now My Love? Now That It's Over" . It IS over, you know, the S&P 500 new all time high breakout finally happened and now the question next is: What Now? Can we live through another day?
OK nothing as dramatic as the song suggests. Usually we get a pause, a pullback, reflection along with the sigh. Finally, the birth has happened and we are the proud parent of ... a new high! Have a cigar or a box of candy along with a bottle of Dom if you need a bubbly to keep you high. Of course after the celebration, we must go home again with our new addition and that is when we realize it's not all as easy as we thought. Now the real work begins, the responsibility builds some call it the "high income" headache.
There are decisions to be made which bring more pressure as they multiply. Do we sell before earnings or after, or "be a fool and go on and on?"
Earning season is upon us, and we know what follows is May when everyone "goes away". .. Maybe not permanently but there comes a depression after all births, when hormones return to normal and we experience for lack of a better term, a "postpartum depression". Will it happen, this year? If so, be ready for bargain shopping once again and another offspring perhaps? Ah, is that too much to ask for now, my love? What now? Well, we know we'll go on 'cause it's not really over. Nothing ever is.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $SPX $DJIA $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
OK nothing as dramatic as the song suggests. Usually we get a pause, a pullback, reflection along with the sigh. Finally, the birth has happened and we are the proud parent of ... a new high! Have a cigar or a box of candy along with a bottle of Dom if you need a bubbly to keep you high. Of course after the celebration, we must go home again with our new addition and that is when we realize it's not all as easy as we thought. Now the real work begins, the responsibility builds some call it the "high income" headache.
There are decisions to be made which bring more pressure as they multiply. Do we sell before earnings or after, or "be a fool and go on and on?"
Earning season is upon us, and we know what follows is May when everyone "goes away". .. Maybe not permanently but there comes a depression after all births, when hormones return to normal and we experience for lack of a better term, a "postpartum depression". Will it happen, this year? If so, be ready for bargain shopping once again and another offspring perhaps? Ah, is that too much to ask for now, my love? What now? Well, we know we'll go on 'cause it's not really over. Nothing ever is.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $SPX $DJIA $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Monday, April 8, 2013
The Weekly Outlook - $SPX $DJIA $NDX Another Bear Flag?
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***** No doubt that we got an insight to what is possible with the current situation of the markets on Friday. The S& P did not break out into a new high for the second day in a row and instead, double topped and dropped. To me it indicates that there is an expectation of a correction and a worry that the coming earnings reports may not deliver rosy outlooks. Therefore this coming week and next will most likely be on watch alert and perhaps great moves not forthcoming. Unless, unexpected news once again surprises the markets.
Looking at the indexes on different time frames tend to reveal short and longer term possibilities so I never discount what one shows as being the only indication for the next possible step. Remember to always trade it well and carefully and while the market once again recovers and adjusts, watch and enjoy the show.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Looking at the indexes on different time frames tend to reveal short and longer term possibilities so I never discount what one shows as being the only indication for the next possible step. Remember to always trade it well and carefully and while the market once again recovers and adjusts, watch and enjoy the show.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Friday, April 5, 2013
A Weekend Note - It's Not Just About Trading
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*****My life if not just about trading .. nor trading about life although the second statement is much more true. The comment I received on Twitter the other day that I seemed to be on permanent vacation is true in the sense that it's my philosophy. I have always striven to do what I enjoyed so it did not seem like work. I remember when I was young and having to help clean house, I'd dance while I vacuumed. I turned up the radio, opened all the windows, (I love fresh air) and danced while pushing the vacuum around. Luckily no one complained about the job I did, so I never learned to stop doing chores with windows open, music blasting and .. well you can guess the rest.
In my opinion there are so many fun things to do that we can enjoy that I often find myself thinking what is stated in my profile : "I wish I didn't need sleep". I don't claim that I have enjoyed every part of everything I've done and I don't expect that I will, but if I find a way to do it which makes it more fun, I will practice it. Hence, I DJ music on blip.fm while working because it helps me focus off the stress aspect of watching a trade and not because I've nothing else to do. I also do it while formulating stories or instructions for the next day's trades.
Life can be enjoyed if we accept its rules. One of which is that if you don't feel it, then don't do it because it's not the right choice for you. Without shirking responsibility, this philosophy works for trading and for life because you can select from an abundant number of trades and things to do which make your days much more enjoyable Look around and soon you may feel the same way as I. So go, let your solar plexus be your guide and enjoy whatever you do. Have a great weekend!
Happy trading, living and dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
In my opinion there are so many fun things to do that we can enjoy that I often find myself thinking what is stated in my profile : "I wish I didn't need sleep". I don't claim that I have enjoyed every part of everything I've done and I don't expect that I will, but if I find a way to do it which makes it more fun, I will practice it. Hence, I DJ music on blip.fm while working because it helps me focus off the stress aspect of watching a trade and not because I've nothing else to do. I also do it while formulating stories or instructions for the next day's trades.
Life can be enjoyed if we accept its rules. One of which is that if you don't feel it, then don't do it because it's not the right choice for you. Without shirking responsibility, this philosophy works for trading and for life because you can select from an abundant number of trades and things to do which make your days much more enjoyable Look around and soon you may feel the same way as I. So go, let your solar plexus be your guide and enjoy whatever you do. Have a great weekend!
Happy trading, living and dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - ©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
The Daily Outlook - $SPX $DJI $NDX Elusive Dreams?
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*****It is every person's goal to reach their dreams. If you are not one of them, don't read on. I am, of course, stating the obvious but it's for a reason. We tend to get disappointed when a dream seems so close to reach and then, for one reason or another, it pops, fizzles, or in this case, drops. It is hard to remember that it is most likely only a temporary setback and perhaps for a good reason that we cannot comprehend at the moment it happens to us. Throughout our lives each one of us can recall many such occurrences only to see later why the reaching of a dream was delayed or perhaps never attained.
In order to reach our dreams, we have to set a course that takes us from possibility to actuality but outside influences can thwart our goals and we may need to start fresh several times before attaining them. The $SPX today again deflated the idea that we are going to hit a new all time high. Today, it also took over the leader role in the indexes; whether it will be short lived or longer termed, I do not know, but it tends to take the lead at direction changes and it is now the one to watch for as long as it lasts. Am I dreaming? Maybe so, but only time will let us know if they become elusive or actual again.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
In order to reach our dreams, we have to set a course that takes us from possibility to actuality but outside influences can thwart our goals and we may need to start fresh several times before attaining them. The $SPX today again deflated the idea that we are going to hit a new all time high. Today, it also took over the leader role in the indexes; whether it will be short lived or longer termed, I do not know, but it tends to take the lead at direction changes and it is now the one to watch for as long as it lasts. Am I dreaming? Maybe so, but only time will let us know if they become elusive or actual again.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
The Weekly Outlook - $DJIA $SPX $NDX Boom, Bust or Whimper?
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*****All eyes on the S&P 500 awaiting the breakout but more importantly awaiting the reaction to a new high. All I can say is it's going to be boom, bust or whimper.
That's not much help, I know, but why add to the drama when we will find out soon enough the result. Just another thought; what if it does not hit a new high at all? Nah, that can't happen, can it? No matter what, I'm wishing you all well and good luck.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
P.S.
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
That's not much help, I know, but why add to the drama when we will find out soon enough the result. Just another thought; what if it does not hit a new high at all? Nah, that can't happen, can it? No matter what, I'm wishing you all well and good luck.
Happy Trading, Living and Dancing
Anni
P.S.
The Daily Pick - $DJIA $SPX $NDX
©DayTrading with Anni 2007 - 2013 All Rights Reserved
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