Life relates to trading and trading relates to life. Constantly revealing, unfolding before us as we trade and live, so I write about how my life relates to trading and how I trade the markets. Along the way I share my opinions on anything that evokes my passion or tickles my funny bone trying not to forget that enjoying life is the best part of living.
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*****Sometimes I wonder where some of what I see on the charts comes from. Certainly I have the experience viewing the charts and have the memory of how it may have reacted before, but what about times where I just can't see what the rest of the reported opinions out there in "Twitterland" see. It would take a lot of study to allow for a documented and factual answer, but I think I prefer the version that keeps coming to me from within. Not my brain, but also not without my brain. It's where all is combined and all knowledge is available to be received. Knowing, Seeing, Feeling. It is where total peace is felt with oneself as well as a knowing that all is OK including myself.
Once again I felt it today as I was doing my weekly outlook. How do I know that what I put forth from there is good and correct? I don't, so I trust that it will be. Proof being in the future from where we analyze the past. In other words I, like you, will have to trust first, be patient second, and be open to surprises, 'cause wishes do come true.
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*****Each level we reach, each one we test and each consensus signal is significant in trading as it is in life. We tend to look at outbreaks as individual achievements. Usually not many traders or people follow there until after a bit of dust has settled. Or as I say confirmed as not a false breakout. Not everyone is cut out to reach for the stars or highs so only those who have the notion to try and the stamina to try again will succeed at those lofty level.
Additionally when we do take a chance we like to think to equip ourselves for the inevitable failure. In other words we are much harder on ourselves in trading and in life when we fail and subsequently may wish to just be adrift at sea because it's when those failures break when we punish ourselves.
Those who tend to watch at these levels are not insignificant because they are the cautious ones. They are the ones that tend to wait for assurance that their outlook will come to fruition and they look for confirmation before action. Once they are into the trade consensus is reached and the direction is more assured.
Therefore looking for direction it may be wise to consider all points on a compass and expect only change.
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*****When markets will not react to news and economic data in a historic fashion, you know there's some major manipulation going on. When that happens, predictability goes out the window and possibllities arise which normally would not be considered. That is what's been happening realistically in the markets for several years and it will not soon, if ever, change.
The world has now become used to the idea that all problems can be fixed by one government or another, patched by one international monetary regulatory agency or another, to make you believe that all is possible and no one will suffer the consequence. All make believe except to those who pay at the real markets: food, gasoline, heating oil, transportation, sales taxes, value added taxes etc. Evidence of the rising is all around at the entertainment venues and restaurants. They are not as crowded, and tickets are more likely to be had at a discount, even for free. Promotions last longer too, or some previously successful events are cancelled for lack of attendance. People are voting with their dollars in other ways too but not often where it really counts.
One does not have to look very far to have seen the creeping inflation which is getting harder and harder to hide by monetary policy manipulations, hence now they are beginning to hedge. Of course those of us who have been keeping an eye on the money markets and the real markets could not help but see the dollar being more and more diluted and consumer necessity prices more and more inflated. If you cannot see it, you have not been shopping or paying your own bills. Unfortunately, once this type of manipulation takes place, nothing can be done. Everyone blames everyone else for greed and wants more for themselves in form of wages, taxes or bonuses, all the while ignoring their own hand in the creation.
We all create our own reality, whether we do it directly or indirectly in a voting booth, it takes courage to face what we have created but the sooner we do, the sooner we can learn from the mistakes and correct them. Doing nothing will only prolong the inevitable, although your children won't know it.
What does it take? Price too high, don't buy, which is easier said yet it's how it's done. Don't demand that raise, it contributes to diluting the dollars you get and inflating prices you are willing to pay with your seemingly more income. Unfortunately it would take a large number of people to create the consensus since everyone is in pursuit of the imaginary wealth. Hence yesterdays millionaires are today's billionaires and there are more millionaires than ever, but it's still not enough. Caution about who's got the wealth and reminder about what is wealth falls on deaf ears, but let's not get crazy with that because "yesterday" $25k would have been enough to live very comfortably and today, well, $250k is not enough to the same group.
One thing is for certain, inflation eventually will take more bite than gives love and, in the longer term, it's what robs one of real wealth and puts us into slavery.
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*****In plain simple terms, trust requires vulnerability therefore it's not without cost. Whenever you place your trust in someone or something you become vulnerable to being betrayed. We tend not to think of it in those terms but it is the most we can give and it's also the most open that we can be toward anything or anyone.
Regardless of the danger, it's in the open trust that we learn and receive the most in life and where we feel the most alive. Truth is we want to trust and feel that utmost vulnerability that we felt as children. Our free spirit comes out to play again, and we like to leave ourselves open because we like the feeling.
As traders we trust our platforms to deliver the information in timely and accurate manner. We trust our equipment not to fail and we trust the service providers to deliver what we ordered. We are vulnerable to one or all of those failing and if the fix is not prompt our trust is tested even more. Yet it's the least of our problems. We look to trust in what others are saying and we look to trust what they say is true.
Trust flourishes with feedback, once proven to be good, we rely more on the trust that gives us the positive, because it's what we received from our parents. When I talk about what I see on the charts, I ask that you trust in what I see, in a way. If you can't see it you may ask questions, and in this way may become more aware and open to my opinion to the point of trusting what I talk about. Along the way you may learn to read the charts as well or even better, and thus the trust is complete.
We also have to remember that trust in others does not mean giving up trusting in ourselves, it just means we cannot do everything and need to rely on others to help complete us. Which leaves us vulnerable but satisfied and at the same time open to new experience.
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*****Long time ago I took a course called : est! It was called a "training" which set off warning bells, but I took it on some good friend's recommendation anyway.
I did not regret taking the course yet I will not say that it was the pivotal moment of my life, because I was already on my way, but it most likely was on some level since lately I find myself referencing those little aphorism. The course gave me tools, reinforced what I was already thinking and helped reference what I already saw and felt. It then allowed me to add to my knowledge things not quite yet seen but ready to be known. One of which was/is : "In life, understanding is the booby prize" one of the aphorisms which brings me to the point of today's tape commentary and this article.
Pattern recognition on a chart is not learned by seeing and knowing the names of patterns. That is understanding, and seeing by hindsight, in other words it keeps you stuck. Recognition of what is coming, learning by observation which leads to feeling of the next move, is where pattern recognition pays rewards. This keen ability to learn is within all of us, and available by studying those charts daily as they unfold. Once you recognize how likely the next move is, you will be miles ahead of understanding and way ahead of anyone else.
There are many patterns to be seen and recognized and your reaction cannot be from the past but only from the present. I can say it's better if you don't understand it. Trusting in your own ability to recognize it, is what life and trading is about and it's how you will experience it; not through some one else's eye but your own unique set of brown, green, gray or blues.
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*****One of the most common themes that run thoughout my articles is: trust. Since my beginnings as an investor I've noticed how that seemingly simple word is really one of the most challenging. Do all the research that you must in the end when it comes to laying your money down on the line, it's a matter of trust. Spend hours on a trading plan for the day, week or month and in the end when it comes to your setups, it's a matter of trust.
How you overcome the fear of losing the bet you make on your well researched plans is key to living life itself. We all have to let go with each step we decide to take; it seems a simple analogy, but think how it takes trust to take a step. Each step puts us in a new position where we have not been before and we trust that it will get us to where we plan to arrive. For trading we must equally trust that each step we take will take us to the goal we have set ourselves.
Sometimes the journey takes longer than we originally planned other times it's much quicker, and there are times when we fail and have to abort, but if we do not allow trust in ourselves and others to help us get there, we may never even start.
I was prompted to write part VI of these series because of what I said in my Weekly Outlook $DJIA hitting near my target low on Friday, which reminded and reinforced my observations about charts and outcomes.
Reading once again part V, it served as a reminder that it's a matter of trust that all things will happen as we envision them, if we take that first step; that first leap of faith . (to be continued)